COP30 is a chance for Brazil to lead on climate action and defend multilateralism on a global stage

2025 is a pivotal year for climate action. In November, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) is taking place in Belém, the largest city in the Brazilian Amazon region. Belém’s selection as the host city is symbolic for several reasons. It highlights the importance of the world’s largest and most biodiverse tropical rainforest for the global climate. It also emphasises the social movements and communities, particularly indigenous peoples, who depend on the Amazon and dedicate their lives to protecting it. Many people see COP30 as the last opportunity to push for a higher level of global collective climate ambition and action.

However, Brazil’s role as host of COP30 will be challenging. The country will need to tackle complex issues that were overlooked or not adequately resolved at previous COPs, including the design of the financial mechanism and how and when to phase out fossil fuels.

In addition to these thorny issues, Brazil’s leadership will be tested by a profound shift in geopolitics. Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency signals a renewed emphasis on nationalism and protectionism, as well as fierce criticism of the global governance system centred around the United Nations, which was established after the second world war. Through his “America First” policy, Trump is distancing himself from allies, disrupting international trade, and disregarding cooperation on transnational issues, including the Paris Agreement. He has also rolled back many climate protections and policies in the US and pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement, making it clear that he actively discourages climate action.

Brazil’s President Lula is moving in a different direction. He has renewed his commitment to international cooperation and multilateralism. In 2024, Brazil held the G20 presidency, and initiated critical discussions on combatting hunger, poverty, inequality, and taxing wealth. This led to the creation of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, which is supported by 102 countries as well as several international organisations1—an unusual occurrence for a forum centred on economic and financial issues.

In 2025, Brazil assumed the presidency of the BRICS intergovernmental organisation (a forum for countries from the Global South currently formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran). Ahead of COP30, Lula seized the opportunity presented at the BRICS summit in July 2025 to harness the group’s collective ambition. The final BRICS declaration stated that cooperation within and through the BRICS forum is fundamental to contributing to the global effort towards a sustainable future and a just and equitable transition to sustainable economic models and away from fossil fuels.2 Important messages were also conveyed at the meeting, such as the rejection of unilateral and discriminatory protectionist measures under the pretext of environmental concerns, and the need to reform current global governance to promote a more just, equitable, agile, effective, efficient, responsive, representative, legitimate, democratic and accountable international and multilateral system. However, there are tensions among members of the BRICS, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s status as the United States’ biggest trade adversary.

On the international stage, Brazil’s President Lula is setting an example in the fight against the current erosion of multilateralism. However, if Brazil is to become a key player in climate politics, it must first tackle the two internal tensions that are holding back progress on the climate agenda.3 4

The first source of tension is economic. As with previous Workers’ Party administrations, the current Lula government relies on the agribusiness sector and the exploitation of natural resources to stimulate economic growth, despite its green rhetoric. This economic dilemma is exemplified by the pressure that Brazil’s environmental agency, IBAMA, has faced to approve the exploration of a new oil frontier in a sensitive ecological area near the mouth of the Amazon River. The IBAMA approval process is now in its final stages,5 but before that, both IBAMA and the environment minister, Marina Silva, were criticised by President Lula and members of Congress from across the political spectrum for initially refusing to grant the drilling licence on technical grounds. Supporters of oil exploration, including President Lula, argue that it enables “sustainable development and a fair energy transition,” 6 despite serious concerns from environmental campaigners. This demonstrates the contradiction between Lula’s government’s climate ambitions and their actions.

The second source of tension is political and is led by the reactionary National Congress. Over the past decade, Brazil has seen the emergence of a “ruralist” caucus in Congress, driven by an economic development policy centred on exporting agricultural commodities. Dozens of bills endangering environmental protection and indigenous rights are being fast-tracked through the House of Representatives and the Federal Senate. One of these merits particular attention. The approval of Bill 2,159/2021 by Congress7 (now Law 15 190/2025) was announced as a means of simplifying environmental licensing procedures. However, it actually circumvents or undermines the vital monitoring and accountability systems that underpin these procedures. A controversial example of this is licensing by adhesion and commitment, whereby entrepreneurs self certify that their enterprises will not cause environmental damage. The new law also introduces the concept of “Special Environmental Licensing.” This establishes a special, supposedly simplified, procedure for activities or projects deemed strategic by a government council regardless of their potential to cause pollution. The approval of this bill is a disappointing setback to Brazil’s climate commitments and undermines its leadership role in climate action heading into COP30.

As more governments move away from multilateralism and decisive climate action, is there a way forward? While a commitment to multilateralism is the correct approach for tackling the current climate emergency, it is also important to consider the state of democracy worldwide. We have witnessed a move away from democracy across the world and a shift towards more right wing, nationalist governments. Autocracies and right wing governments are usually hostile to the climate agenda, which risks setting back progress at a crucial time.8 On the other hand, eco-authoritarianism, a concept raised by climate scientist James Lovelock,9 which advocates for centralised, authoritarian action on the climate emergency, is unlikely to be effective either, as it lacks “the same range and variety of actors, organizations, and decision centers as a vibrant democracy.”10

If we are to make coordinated and effective progress on climate action, we must avoid leaders and parties that disregard the rule of law and openly challenge democratic institutions and norms. It is crucial that the leaders and delegates at COP30 recognise the emerging political challenges to the climate agenda. However, expectations of increased social participation in this critical summit may be frustrated. The high cost of accommodation in Belém, bureaucratic obstacles, and unclear attendance procedures may limit attendance at the summit. These issues have already had a negative impact on pre-COP30 discussions and could undermine the urgent climate efforts needed to ensure that no one is left behind.